Background
One of the important strategic tasks of the FP6 is integration and strengthening of the European Research Area (ERA) and in particular support of international co-operation research and technology development (RTD) that will help open the ERA to the rest of the world. The main research priorities of the INCO specific measures for the Russia and other New Independent States should cover the following issues: stabilization of research and development potential, changes in the industrial production system, environment and health protection and related safety aspects. This proposal specifically addresses the issue of the INCO NIS call under "D.1 Environmental protection" and the issues related to "management of environmental risks associated with manmade changes and industrial : waste" with focus on the risk to "water" and in particular the marine Arctic environment.
Within the framework of environment investigation and preservation, the main challenge resides in assemblage, concatenation and summarization of observational data related to the marine pollutants in the Arctic region. Indeed the outcome of the entire study is crucially dependant upon the identification and quality of above sequence of activities. For extended regions, important is working out common protocols, standards and criteria for collection and quality/adequacy assessment of in situ/observational data. As well a development of methods of a control and an assessments using mathematical simulation models are extremely important (see below), especially a development of the models for the anthropogenic waste concerned with heavy metals, oil & gas field development and its transportation, as well as radioactivity waste (primarily studied under completed research activities) and persistent organic pollutants. A most important advantage of a simulation technique is a capability to assess of consequences of a low-probability extreme pollution scenarios and elaboration of recommendation for the environmental and health protection. Essential in this context is the database on pollutants in the Arctic environment assembled and available through the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment program (AMAP). The project team has a close cooperation with AMAP in this respect.
During long time the partners of the project are collaborating under development of such models. In particular, in the frame of INTAS project 97-31278: "Study of influence of land-based sources of radionuclides on radioactive contamination of the Kara Sea Through Ob' and Yenisey river systems", 1999 - 2001, the dedicated GIS and models of river and estuary dynamics was created and assessment of radionuclide spreading caused by potential accidental pulse release events estuary were provided. Results of another INTAS Project 93-814 "Observations and modelling of transport and dilution of radioactive waste and dissolved pollutants in the Kara Sea", 1995-1997, was a new high-resolution model for the Kara Sea dynamics. On the base of this results a monograph: Polar Seas Oceanography: An integrated case study of the Kara Sea was published inn 2002: (Springer/Praxis, Chichester, UK, 2002, 495 pp., authors: Volkov, V.A., O.M. Johannessen, V.E. Borodachev, G.N. Voinov, L.H. Pettersson, L.P. Bobylev, A.V. Kouraev). At last in the frame of the INCO-2 project "Simulation Scenarios for Potential Radioactive Spreading in the 21st Century from Rivers and External Sources in the Russian Arctic Coastal Zone - RADARC" (contract ICA-CT-2000-10037) was implemented during the project period 2001 to 2003, a completely new modelling approach that will result in the implementation of a Generic Model System, where three types of models will be integrated and merged (Gao et al, 2004, Johannessen et al, 2003, Gao et al, 2003). Praxis/Springer will publish the results of the RADARC project in a book in 2005 as a part of these suggested SSA activities.
The Generic Model System (GMS) that was created within the RADARC project for the first time include the GIS and an interactive hydrodynamic models chain for simulations of radionuclide transport from relevant land-based sources to/in the Kara Sea and in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean. GMS consist of four adopted and validated hydrodynamic models: a medium resolution (50 km) 3-D numerical ice-ocean model for the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean nested with a high resolution (5 km) model for the Kara Sea including a sediment module nested with the river model system include one-dimensional model of river dynamics and radionuclide transport and three-dimensional model of estuarine and coastal areas hydrodynamics and transport of radionuclides in the aquatic environment (Johannessen et al, 2003 ).
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Under the RADARC project the most probable release scenarios for radionuclides was developed and simulation studies for the selected "release" scenarios of radionuclides, using the following atmospheric forcing scenarios, including global warming, likely consistent with a CO2 doubling, was carried-out. The contamination sources considered were the Siberian processing plants, river flood plain and river discharges in Siberia and the European processing plant in Sellafield. |
Thus a new tool for an assessment of the potential radioactive spreading in the Arctic was created and the assessment of the potential radioactive spreading from rivers and external sources in the Russian Arctic Coastal Zone was developed. The benefits and results of the GMS simulations during RADARC are very promising. It will be very inviting to appreciate a perspective of using GMS for analysis of more extended range of various marine waste and pollutant components as well to try to make accessible to all European and NIS scientists by means of creation of a special procedure for dissemination and access the results of GMS simulation results.
GMS Application
The proposal's purposes are next fold:
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The project implementation will promote establishment of universal standards modeling methods to be employed and main basis of collection and systematization of observational essential data on the state of marine ecosystems. Analyzed will be the sources of the employed data to the effect of appraising the degree of compatibility between the Russian and European criteria of data quality assessment. A comparative description of Russian and European approaches to the monitoring and use of modeling for simulations of spreading of pollutants in the marine environment as well as systematization of data will also be addressed at scientific meetings scheduled within this project. The project will promote international cooperation between Russian, Ukrainian and European scientists. This will be achieved through holding dedicated meetings and workshops with the invitation of experts from EC countries that are knowledgeable in the akin activities run or being run in Europe. Direct cooperation will be established with the European Environmental Agency, International Council for Exploration of the Seas (ICES) and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). AMAP was also a partner of the RADARC project.
Under the suggested project envisaged is the organization of dedicated seminars for further establishing expert groups tasked with
- To demonstrate and extend a results of GMS application for the assessments of a potential radioactive spreading in the Arctic Ocean;
- To analyze a features of other models that is similar to separated GMS components;
- To assess the resources and potential of GMS for more wide applications;
- To assess a status of an accessible suitable data bases as to nomenclature of their entries, parameter accuracy, time resolution, etc.;
- To assess the conformity of the existing EU and Russian approaches to the problem of environmental risks management associated with man-made changes and industrial wastes in the Arctic region;
- To summarize an experience of GMS application for study of a potential type specific major marine pollutants (persistent organic pollutants (POPs), industrial chemicals (e.g. PCP's), heavy metals and accidental releases of hydrocarbon pollutants) in the Arctic Ocean and to prepare a corresponding manuscript with a special emphasis to the GMS description;
- To prepare an arrangement procedure plan of GMS application for the management of environmental risks associated with man-made changes and industrial wastes in the Arctic region.
A monograph "Radioactivity and Pollution Spreading in the Arctic Ocean: Observations, Modeling and Simulations" will be prepared for publication by Springer/Praxis in 2006 as a part of the activities under this project. This monograph will have emphasis to the detailed description of GMS and a dedicated GIS tool.
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Its contents will be discussed at the planned meetings of Russian and European experts. When published it will be disseminated between the participants of activities conducted within the framework of the SSA project. Thus, the systematized and published results of the studies will be attainable for the European scientific community, and will facilitate the access to the European Research Area for the Russian Research institutions. Thus as a result of this project a base for dissemination of results and expansion of GMS application in projects of FP6 and others integrated environmental programs will be provided. |
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The project will result in a comprehensive report accommodating both summarized comparative assessments of the existing systems of modelling of marine waste processes in Russia and Europe as well as a well substantiated the worked out vision of realistic perspectives of integration of the currently exploited systems for research purposes.